NFL player contracts often include roster bonuses due early in the offseason.  The goal is to force the team to make a quick decision as to whether the player is in the plans for the coming year.

Since base salaries typically aren’t guaranteed, a team can squat on a player long after the free-agency market has evaporated, and then cut him at a time when it’s too late either to get paid or to get prepared to be successful on a new roster.

Every once in a while, the team pays the bonus and then makes the ultimate decision later.  The Titans, for example, once paid running back Eddie George a $1 million roster bonus in March 2004, only to release him later in the offseason.

This year, Browns quarterback Derek Anderson is due to receive a $5 million roster bonus in March.  The widespread thinking is that they’ll try to trade him before the bonus comes due, because the only alternative is to cut him.

But a league source tells us that the $5 million roster bonus is fully guaranteed by $5 million in salary and other payments, all of which will hit the cap in 2009 because, in 2010, there is no salary cap.

So if the Browns cut him or if they keep him, they’re still on the hook for $5 million. 

How this affects trade talks remains to be seen.  On one hand, there’s even greater urgency for the Browns to do a deal before the roster bonus comes due, since that’s the only way to avoid paying the $5 million.  On the other hand, the Browns might take the position that, if they’re on the hook for the $5 million regardless of whether they keep him or cut him, they might as well keep him around for another year.

New coach Eric Mangini might have been already laying the foundation for the “screw it, we’ll keep him” approach on Thursday, when he didn’t commit to Brady Quinn as the starter.

Regardless, the fact that Anderson’s $5 million roster bonus is fully guaranteed by $5 million in other payments represents a fairly large Cleveland Steamer that Phil Savage has left for the next G.M. (whoever it might be) to clean up.

For our latest SportingNews.com thing, we take a look-see at Sunday’s Chargers-Steelers playoff game.

And we talk about what the Steelers need to do to win the thing.

Even without L.T. for S.D., it won’t be easy.  More than anything else, the Steelers need to steer clear of the temptation to air it out in the same way they did when these two teams got together in November.

The full article is not right here, but right here.

For the first time ever (unless we did it before and just forgot), we’ve compiled a list of the candidates for each vacancy. 

The initial list is based on input from beat writers and separate research we have done. 

We’ll update the list based on new developments.

In ths regard, we need your help.  When you hear of new candidates, or of the elimination of current ones, drop us a line.

New York Jets Head Coach

Reported:  Brian Schottenheimer, Bill Callahan, Brian Billick, Rex Ryan, Steve Spagnuolo, Jeff Jagodzinski, Russ Grimm.

Possible:  Mike Shanahan, Leslie Frazier, Ron Meeks, Ron Rivera.

Out:  Bill Cowher, Marty Schottenheimer.

Cleveland Browns Head Coach 

Reported:  Eric Mangini, Steve Spagnuolo, Mel Tucker, Jim Schwartz, Josh McDaniels.

Possible:  Mike Shanahan, Urban Meyer, Kirk Ferentz.

Out:  Bill Cowher, Marty Schottenheimer.

Hired:  Eric Mangini. 

Cleveland Browns General Manager

Reported:  George Kokinis, Scott Pioli, T.J. McCreight, Tom Heckert.

Denver Broncos Head Coach

Reported:  Steve Spagnuolo, Josh McDaniels, Raheem Morris, Jason Garrett, Rick Dennison, Leslie Frazier, Todd Bowles.

Possible:  Bob Stoops.

Longshots:  Rex Ryan, Jim Schwartz.

Kansas City Chiefs General Manager

Reported:  Scott Pioli, Mark Dominik, Chris Polian, Jimmy Raye, George Kokinis, Eric DeCosta.

Possible:  Phil Savage, Terry Bradway.

Oakland Raiders Head Coach

Reported:  Tom Cable, Kevin Gilbride.

Possible:  Jim Harbaugh, Terry Robiskie, Jim Fassel, Paul Hackett, Rob Ryan, Brian Billick.

Detroit Lions Head Coach

Reported:  Jim Schwartz, Steve Spagnuolo, Todd Bowles, Leslie Frazier, Jerry Gray, Mike Mularkey, Jason Garrett.

Possible:  Rex Ryan, Jim Harbaugh, Ron Rivera.

Unlikely:  Brian Billick.

St. Louis Rams Head Coach

Reported:  Jim Haslett, Winston Moss, Leslie Frazier, Rex Ryan, Ray Sherman, Todd Bowles, Jim Fassel, Jim Schwartz, Raheem Morris, Josh McDaniels.

Possible:  Steve Spagnuolo, Russ Grimm, Mike Munchak, Jason Garrett.

LAST UPDATED 7:08 p.m. EST January 7, 2009.

For our latest column at SportingNews.com, we deviated from the same-old story lines from the actual games that were played.

Instead, we focused on the rumors, innuendo, and speculation about the actual and potential vacancies in various NFL cities.

Curiously, we identified ten topics.  Not nine or eleven, but ten.

Odd.

Here it is.

For our end-of-week item at SportingNews.com, we take a look-see at Sunday’s showdown between the Eagles and the Vikings in Minnesota.

Though the Eagles are favored, which seems to be keeping the locals from buying tickets, the Vikings aren’t necessarily in line for a butt-kicking.

That said, we wouldn’t bet against a butt-kicking.  But the Vikings could win.

For more on why we think that, all you have to do is click here.

For our latest SportingNews.com item, we ponder the high-profile trade that got quarterback Brett Favre out of Green Bay.

And that ultimately got Eric Mangini out of New York.

It was, in all, a failure. 

For more details, click here.

For our end-of-week submission at SportingNews.com, we decided to revisit the question of whether the current structure of the NFL’s divisions and the current scheduling formula employed by the league should be changed.

By Sunday night, there’s a chance that fans of the Baltimore Ravens or the New England Patriots will believe that something needs to happen.

If the Dolphins beat the Jets, then either the Ravens or the Jets are going to be screwed, left out of the tournament in a season in which several inferior teams will find a golden ticket.

For more, click here.

[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist takes a summary look at three of the key games from Week Seventeen of the NFL season.] 

In the interests of complete 17-week coverage of the season, I’m going to attack some of the last games of the regular season in abbreviated fashion as well. The League likes to feature divisional matchups to close out seasonal play and many have playoff consequences attached to the outcomes. Miami could very well complete a remarkable turnaround year with a victory over the Jets in the New York. Dallas is trying to avoid what would be a monumental disappointment by missing post season play against longtime rival Philly. And Denver seeks to avoid what has never been accomplished in the history of the League (blowing a three-game lead with three games to play) by traveling to San Diego for a “flexed” showdown with the Chargers at Qualcomm.Dolphins at Jets.

South Florida is one of only a few places in the continental United States that has been able to escape the wicked weather that has stretched from Seattle to Chicago and on to New York.

“Bone-chilling cold” seems the best way to describe the weather report for many NFL games over the past week. Sunday’s early forecast calls for some chance of showers and what appears to be a seasonably warm temperature.

New York’s cross country stumble to Seattle has dimmed their playoff chances, but Miami can win an outright divisional title with a victory on the road.

Both QB’s will be ready for the elements; Favre having played in much worse for so many years in Green Bay and Pennington used to the swirling winds in his old team’s stadium.

The KEY will be the ground games of both teams. Thomas Jones has been the needed spark to complement Favre and his receivers in ’08, while the tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have over 1,400 yards of their own.

Dolphins QB Chad Pennington has five targets with over 30 receptions and 400+ yards to choose from. Favre has spread the ball around just as well, but counts on WR’s Jericho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles to carry the load (135 receptions, 1579 yards & 11 TD’s combined).

Both defenses are ranked in the top 10 shutting down the run and the team that can crack the opposition’s front on the ground will most likely take control of this late December game in the Meadowlands. Emotions will abound with the potential of a Miami flip to Division Champs, Pennington’s return to New York, and the possibility of Favre “hanging it up” for good.

Cowboys at Eagles.

No team may have been hyped more in the preseason than the Dallas Cowboys. With the overabundance of talent and 2007 NFC East crown, the Cowboys were most everyone’s bet to make the trip to Super Bowl XLIII.

A funny thing happened on the way to Tampa as Tony Romo was injured & out for a few weeks, Pacman Jones was suspended (again), the defense crumbled at times, and T.O. wasn’t getting the ball enough (or maybe Jason Witten was getting it too much).

Philly has been faced with the continuing question of the effectiveness of veteran QB Donovan McNabb, so much so that the Eagles signal caller was benched a few weeks ago to make the point.

The Eagles are currently on the outside looking in and face a must-win scenario to even have a chance at a wild-card berth. Dallas is squatting on the final position and must win to keep their place in postseason.

The Cowboys won a shootout in Dallas on Monday night in Week 2, 41-37. The KEY was the ability of the Cowboys to convert in the red zone (3 of 3) and Philly’s efficiency to do so hasn’t been up to par for much of the season.

Missed opportunities have been more of the norm for the Eagle offense, and look for McNabb to turn to RB Bryan Westbrook and TE L.J. Smith inside the 20. The Eagles defense has proved to be “feast or famine” in stopping opponents in such scenarios and any points “left on the field” could be fatal to both teams’ playoff chances.

Broncos at Chargers

Neither the AFC West nor the NFC West has shown to be overly formidable in ’08. Both division winners will come out of the regular season with less wins than their wild-card brethren.

Five of the eight teams in the West are ranked in the bottom 10 of the League’s overall standings. Arizona clinched weeks ago and has been able to hold off the improvement of the 49ers as a result, but Denver never was able to pull away from San Diego (despite the Chargers midseason attempts to collapse), and Denver now faces the dubious distinction of the aforementioned record.

If “flex scheduling” wasn’t made for this then I’m not sure what was.

The two rivals squared off early in the season in a game that arguably swung the fortunes of the Chargers in a downward direction.

The officials admittedly erred in a controversial fumble/incomplete pass by QB Jay Cutler and San Diego found itself on the other side of a 39-38 asterisk.

Now, fresh off new life from Denver’s fourth home loss of the season the Chargers can defend their division crown with a home win of their own.

The Broncos placed their sixth and seventh RB’s on IR this week and what once was one of the most coveted positions in football has become the most cursed. But make no mistake, this is Cutler’s team and the game plan will be to put the ball in Cutler’s hands early and often.

The KEY for San Diego will be pressure on the Broncos QB and forcing the errant throws that have led to many of Denver’s woes in ’08. The Bronco O-line has done an outstanding job in protecting their QB this season and the heat will be turned up to “max” on the Chargers burner.

If San Diego can fluster and frustrate Cutler with pressure then they will more than likely force him into trying to “make the play.”

This is frequently when he is at his worst and will throw into coverage or mishandle the ball in the pocket.

Facial expressions from the Denver signal caller will quickly show whether he’s in or out of the game. My bet is he comes ready to play and this will be a wild one for sure.

These three contests should all provide some post Christmas fun for NFL fans and present a belated “gift” of a playoff appearance for three of the six cities.

[Editor’s note:  We’ve got a truncated set of Week Sixteen game review’s from former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist.  His mother suffered a broken leg while tending to the Christmas decorations outside Ted’s parents’ home, and he has been in Houston assisting her.] 

Panthers at GiantsThe Giants secured KEY #3 with a colossal ground game behind Derrick Ward’s 215 yard performance. The Giant O-line took control of the LOS and opened up some gaping holes.

Where were the Panther safeties?

It was more in tune with what we’ve come to expect from this New York team and even the Giants agreed that it was important to get back to what they do best; run the football.

Carolina’s defense was able to put pressure on the New York passing game as QB Eli Manning was sacked 3 times and hurried another three. However, Manning stayed away from the big mistake and didn’t turn the ball over while using the pass to efficiently convert on 2^nd & 3^rd downs.

Steelers at Titans

Bad blood is flowing between Pittsburgh and Tennessee after the Titans wiped up on the “Terrible Towels.”

This may very well turn into a rematch late in the playoffs, but the Titans were able to re-establish themselves as a favorite to take the AFC.

What ebbed & flowed as a close game for the better part of three quarters exploded into a Titan blowout with 14 unanswered points in the fourth. The Titans executed KEY #2 to perfection in forcing Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger to throw into the blanket coverage of Tennessee’s talented secondary.

I felt the turnover would play a major role in the outcome of this game and the Titans were able to convert both their 2^nd half interceptions into scores.

Leading 17-14 late in the 3^rd, the Titans’ Michael Griffin picked Big Ben and returned the ball 32 yards to the Pittsburgh 37. Nine plays later Tennessee would punch it in for the TD.  Then late in the game and the Steelers driving to pull within 3 points, Griffin picked Roethlisberger again and returned the ball 87 yards for a score. Game over.

Falcons at Vikings

The final game was upstart Atlanta’s attempt to remain in the playoff hunt against NFC North leading Minnesota. The Falcons had ridden the arm of rookie QB Matt Ryan and the legs of UFA RB Michael Turner to put them back into the League’s contenders for post-season play.

The Viking offense was centered around second-year sensation RB Adrian Peterson and KEY #2 for Atlanta was to slow down Minnesota’s ground game.

The Falcon defense came ready to play and held the “big play” back to 76 yards on 22 carries, a mere 3.5 per tote. Peterson would log one run for 17 yards but didn’t have a TD on the day.

The Falcons were able to convert two costly Viking mistakes into first-half scores and take a commanding 24-7 lead, then hold on in the second half when Minnesota made a comeback surge.

Viking QB Tarvaris Jackson was able to hit on some downfield strikes, ran for 76 yards of his own and finished the day with a 98.5 rating. He threw for 22 of 36, 233 yards and 2 TD’s.

But Atlanta’s defense sacked Jackson 3 times and added a whopping 11 hurries to keep the Vikings a bit off rhythm, and Jackson’s first half fumble led to a Jason Elam 22 yard FG before the half.

All three games established some indications of the “balance of power” in both conferences. It will be interesting to see if these games result in any sequels in the weeks ahead.

Our midweek submissions for SportingNews.com focuses on the team that no one in the AFC playoff field wants to play.

The Colts.

If the Pats win the AFC East, if the Chargers win the AFC West, and if the Ravens nail down the No. 6 seed, the Colts will have beaten four of the five teams in the tournament.

If the Vikings win the NFC North, the Colts will be 4-0 against the winners of divisions other than the one in which the Colts reside.

Anywhere, here’s the story.

For the next-to-last time of the season, here’s our list of how we currently see the NFL, top to bottom. 

We post the order, you post the comments. 

1.  Tennessee Titans (13-2). 

2.  New York Giants (12-3).  

3.  Indianapolis Colts (11-4). 

4.  Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4). 

5.  Carolina Panthers (11-4).

6.  Baltimore Ravens (10-5).

7.  Atlanta Falcons (10-5).

8.  Miami Dolphins (10-5). 

9.  New England Patriots (10-5).

10.  Dallas Cowboys (9-6).

11.  Minnesota Vikings (9-6).

12.  Chicago Bears (9-6).

13.  New York Jets (9-6).

14.  Philadelphia Eagles (8-6-1). 

15.  San Diego Chargers (7-8).

16.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6).

17.  Houston Texans (7-8). 

18.  Denver Broncos (8-7).

19.  Washington Redskins (8-7).

20.  New Orleans Saints (8-7).

21.  Arizona Cardinals (8-7). 

22.  San Francisco 49ers (6-9).

23.  Buffalo Bills (7-8).

24.  Seattle Seahawks (4-11).

25.  Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10).

26.  Green Bay Packers (5-10). 

27.  Oakland Raiders (4-11).

28.  Cincinnati Bengals (3-11-1).

29.  Cleveland Browns (4-11).

30.  St. Louis Rams (2-13).

31.  Kansas City Chiefs  (2-13).

32.  Detroit Lions (0-15).

It’s Monday, and that means it’s Ten-Pack time.

Our look at the most recent Sunday of NFL action is locked and loaded at SportingNews.com.

This week, we look at Adrian Peterson’s fumbling of his MVP shot, the question of whether Broncos coach Mike Shanahan and/or Eagles coach Andy Reid (and quarterback Donovan McNabb) are on their way out, whether the Giants and Bengals will be facing franchise tag dilemmas after the season, and other topics.

Ten topics, in all.  Ergo the name.

You can read it right here.

[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at the Week Sixteen prime-time contest.  The winner will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs; the loser could tumble to No. 3]

The top two teams in the NFC meet in what could also prove to be a glimpse of what might come in the NFC Championship on January 18. This games looms large for both clubs who sit at 11-3 atop the conference but appear headed in different directions. The New York Giants got off to a blistering start and charged into the last quarter of the season with just one loss, but have since gone on a two game skid that has left “G” fans scratching their heads. Meanwhile in Charlotte, the Panthers have put together a 3 game streak with wins over likely playoff contenders Tampa Bay and Denver.Carolina plays with a lot on their minds in the face of the sad news of their owner Jerry Richardson facing needing a heart transplant. On the line is the No. 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Will the trends continue in both directions or will New York seize some much needed momentum heading into January?For all the points and offense that the Panthers appear to have piled up over the 2008 season, they look somewhat mediocre on paper. Carolina sits 12^th in total offense; 4^th rushing and 21^st passing. They’re 22^nd in first downs, 22^nd in 3^rd down conversions, 21^st in time of possession and 28^th in first down efficiency.They’re not a team to grind it out the long/hard route and will stall with 3 & outs some 24.6% of the time(21^st). What the Panthers can do is strike with the “big play”.Carolina is 2^nd in quick strike points (59), tied for 3^rd in plays over 20+ yards and pretty much dominate every category of inside the 30 offense.

KEY #1 will be to strike at the Giant defense with the deep pass. New York is allowing opposing QB’s to throw for a 91.5 rating of 21+ “air yards” (27^th in the League). Thirty-four passes have gone for 20+ yards against one of the more stingy units in the NFL. WR’s Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammed average over 14 yards per catch, but QB Jake Delhomme is passing at around average with attempts of 21+ yards or more. The Panthers will want to back off New York from stacking the LOS on RB’s DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (almost 2000 yards combined).

Carolina’s defense faces newly crowned Pro Bowler Eli Manning and his 87.2 QB rating. Manning has effectively operated this offense for much of the season with a “monster” running game (Jacobs (knee), Ward (ankle) & Bradshaw (neck)), and “big play” receivers in Amani Toomer, Steve Smith & Domenik Hixon (ankle).

But Manning struggles at times in the face of blitz and has been sacked 23 times this season. Against Dallas last week he was sacked an astounding 8 times and threw 2 picks. New York’s O-Line is shell shocked at the moment and must rebound in the face of pressure from the Panther’s DE Julius Peppers.

KEY #2 will be Carolina’s ability to create some push up front and fluster Manning. New York’s running attack has stumbled the past month but the Giants are one of the best at converting 3^rd & long situations via the air. Carolina has held opponents to a 21.3% conversion rate in those very scenarios and if the Panthers can maintain their efficiency with first down defense (6^th), look for a direct collision late in the series.

New York must get their ground game back on track and fast. Though a bit banged up in the backfield, the Giants will want to establish control of the LOS at home. Their ability to move the ball on first down with the rushing attack has taken the pressure off the downfield pass and actually opened up more opportunity for the deep ball. The past two weeks NYG hasn’t eclipsed the 100 yard mark on the ground and their longest play to a WR has been just 19 yards.

KEY #3 will be to take on the Carolina front seven who rank 18^th in stopping the run at 111.5 per game. This too will be placed on the shoulders of the O-Line and their ability to create some movement upfront against big Ma’ake Kemoeatu (ankle) and company. The Giants should once again attack to their left where they average an outstanding 6+ per carry (1^st in the NFL).

KEY #4 will be DC’s Corey Webster and Aaron Ross directly matched up on WR’s Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammed. Smith is the Panther’s “go to” threat and has 6 TD’s with his 17.7 per catch average. Muhammed brings size and strength down into the red zone where Carolina ranks 1^st in play efficiency and 3^rd in scoring efficiency.

With New York focused on bottling up Williams and Stewart, the secondary will be frequently left on its own (dangerously so) to slow down the production of Carolina’s talented duo. Smith is on a tear with 22 receptions for 387 yards and 2 TD’s over the 3 game win streak. “Moose” has posted 9 for 163 yards and complemented the speedy Smith very well.

The NYG secondary has 16 interceptions in ’08 with two returned for scores. I think the Giants will “step up” vs. the run and the hopes of their fans will rest on how they handle the “big play” passing attack of Delhomme.

KEY #5 will be the punt returns of NY’s Domenik Hixon and Carolina’s Mark Jones. Hixon averages 10.1 per return and has a long of 50. Jones averages 11.7 with a long of 55. The dynamic of a big return after a solid stand by your defense can go a long way in turning momentum in your favor. Hixon and Jones have that ability, but NYG is 2^nd & Carolina 6^th in coverage. This could make for some interesting 4^th downs.

[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at the Falcons-Vikings game, which has plenty of playoff implications.]

As the Falcons prepare to battle the Vikings, story lines abound, starting with this year’s probable rookie of the year in QB Matt Ryan vs. last year’s in the explosive RB Adrian Peterson. How about the entire turnaround in Atlanta and the jobs that head coach Mike Smith and G.M. Thomas Dimitroff have done? The untimely on again/off again suspensions of Kevin & Pat Williams and their psychological affect on Minnesota’s playoff run? Now add in the return of former starting QB Tarvaris Jackson and his rekindled production, Minnesota’s “win and we’re in” scenario, and the Falcons going from top-three draft pick to potential playoff participant. Wow.Atlanta has had a remarkable season and whether they can catch Tampa Bay for the final wildcard position remains to be seen. But as well as the rookie Ryan has played in his first year at the helm, it’s been the downhill reliability of free agent signee RB Michael Turner that has kept this offense on the move.Turner has rushed for 1,421 yards on a 4.3 average. He’s scored 15 TD’s and along with Jerious Norwood is the reason the Falcons are tied for 1^st in rushing yards per game (148.7). The talented tandem also lead the League in runs of 10+ yards (62) and with that kind of production it’s no question why Atlanta turns to their ground game the 2^nd most in the League (55.2%).The Vikings will counter with the #1 rush defense in the NFL (71.2 yards per game). Minnesota also leads the League in preventing runs of 4+ yards (34.3%) and don’t give up the “big play” via the ground (10+ yards (1^st) & 20+ yards (tied 4^th)).KEY #1 will be the ability of the young QB to stretch the Minnesota secondary. The Vikings show a crack in their ability to shut down the deep ball. They’ve surrendered 45 passes of 20+ yards and sit at 29^th as a result.

Ryan has WR’s Roddy White and Michael Jenkins who both average over 15 yards per catch and have scored 9 combined TD’s. Atlanta has produced 41 completions of 20+ yards and Ryan is 7^th in the NFL with a 90.0 rating for throws of 21+ “air yards.”

With Jackson back at QB and coming off a nice game against the NFC West champion Arizona Cardinals the Vikings now present a bit more balanced attack. But the Minnesota offense begins & ends with Adrian Peterson.

The 2^nd year phenom has 1,581 yards rushing and a 4.9 yard average. Minnesota has created their own share of “big plays” on the ground with 53 of 10+ (3^rd) & 21 of 20+ (1^st). The Vikings are ranked 3^rd in the League with 147.6 rushing yards per game and show solid efficiency in hitting for 4+ every carry (43.4%).

No doubt KEY #2 for Atlanta will be to slow down Peterson. It’s not even worth exploring other possibilities. Despite the Falcons ability to run the ball themselves, they have yet to figure out how to stop their opponents from doing the same. Atlanta gives up a 120 yards per game and is dead last in run defense efficiency (47% of 4+). The Falcons are also suspect to the “big play” scampers of 10+ (48 & ranked 26^th) & 20+ (13 & ranked tied 24^th). Opposing teams are finding almost 5 yards per carry on first downs and keeping 3^rd downs relatively manageable. Peterson loves the open field and thrives on the perimeter where Atlanta has struggled defensively to bottle up their opponents.

KEY #3 more than anything will be the ability for the Minnesota Vikings to control their emotions of an impending NFC North championship. They’ll be home in front of their own fans with the energy and noise filling the Metrodome to its brim. Head coach Brad Childress will be tasked with keeping his squad poised and balanced as the game wears on. Any early miscues or mistakes could lead to a swing in momentum for a visitor that has their own reasons for staying focused. Minnesota hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2004 and now is not the time for an overabundance of excitement. Take care of business first.

That said, KEY #4 for Minnesota will be the ability of Jackson to maintain his personal poise and not revert to the early inconsistencies which landed him on the bench. The Falcons can disrupt the rhythm of an opposing pass attack with the blitz and have posted a respectable 28 sacks on the season.

They have bent a bit in stopping 3^rd down conversions in the medium to long range and show a bit more stinginess early in the series against the pass; 70.9 rating on 1^st down passes (6^th). The Vikings look to Bernard Berrian for the “big play” through the air and his 20.6 average is indicative of his ability to deliver. Berrian already has a 99 yard reception for a score and the Atlanta secondary has surrendered 41 passes of 20+ yards (tied for 22^nd).

Look for Childress to try and sneak Berrian behind coverage off play action or with Jackson rolling out on the edge. A steady diet of Peterson might open up the deep game for Minnesota.

KEY #5 goes to the veteran PK Jason Elam. As the season winds down and the importance of the kicks amp up, Elam is at his best. Usually an indoor kicker will struggle going on the road (outdoors) but Elam travels to the friendly confines of another domed stadium and will be right in his own element.

He slammed home the game winner in OT vs Tampa Bay and relishes opportunities such as this. I’m a bit biased but I’ve yet to see one better. Elam is 27 of 29, 4^th in percentage with 93.1 and has hit 11 of 12 from beyond 40. In a close game there’s no question who has the edge.

On Sunday, the 9-5 Falcons visit the 9-5 Vikings in a game that has huge implications for both of them.

We’ve made the game the subject of our Friday item for SportingNews.com.

You can read it right here.  Or you can not read it pretty much anywhere.

This could very well be a preview of the AFC Championship as Pittsburgh visits an old AFC Central rival in the Tennessee Titans/Houston Oilers. This game looks a lot like one from last week when the Steelers scored a late (somewhat controversial) TD to overcome the Baltimore Ravens. Both clubs have ridden the backs of their defenses with the Steelers finding different ways to generate the opportunistic “big plays” on offense and Tennessee using a one-two punch in the running game behind rookie Chris Johnson and LenDale White.With the Conference tightening up a bit after the Titans’ loss to the team that now resides in Houston and the Steelers pulling out a thriller, this Week 16 matchup will determine first seed in the AFC come playoff time.Back in Week 5 the Ravens lost to Tennessee after leading for most of the game. In building a lead, Baltimore shut down the ground game of Tennessee, allowing only 47 yards on 22 carries and a 2.1 avg.The game was thrust into the hands of the veteran QB Kerry Collins and the numbers weren’t all that impressive; 17 of 32 for 163 yards, one TD and 2 picks.

Against the #2 defensive team in the NFL vs. the run Collins can expect to be challenged again.

Though Pittsburgh bent a bit more than usual as the Ravens were able to break the 100 yard mark on the ground (it came at 3.6 per carry and with a long of only 10 yards), KEY #1 will have to be the ability of Collins and his receivers to produce via the air.

Tennessee is 21^st in the NFL with 50.3% of passes gaining 4+ on 1^st down. Despite an outstanding ability to protect their QB (only 8 sacks on the season), Collins is struggling in the face of blitz (30^th with 56.25 rating) and isn’t in the top half of the League in converting 3^rd downs medium (4 to 6) or long (>6) to go. This is the number one defense against the pass and they just don’t give up many big plays through the air. Tennessee will attempt to set the tempo on the ground early in the series, but the Steelers allow only 32.9% (2^nd) of rushes to go for 4+ on 1^st down. Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger is going to have to air it out a bit.

The Titans will look to force Pittsburgh into a similar situation. The Steelers have struggled all year with consistency in the ground game and their offense has relied heavily on Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington to bail them out time after time. Tennessee has the secondary to match up well against this group and has generated 18 picks over the course of ’08.

KEY #2 will be the Titans ability to force Big Ben to the air and create the turnover. The Steeler receivers have had a high number of drops on the year (26^th at 9.4 per game) and Roethlisberger might feel the pressure and frustration of not being able to move the ball on the ground. The blanket ability of the Titans secondary could very well lead Roethlisberger into forcing the ball downfield and Cortland Finnegan, Michael Griffin, Nick Harper and Chris Hope would like nothing more than to practice their ball skills.

The Steelers will look to stop the run first and shore up some of the cracks that formed off Le’Ron McClain’s 87 yards last week. Pittsburgh would probably be more than happy to face down the Tennessee passing attack that has relied heavily on the production of TE Bo Scaife (53 receptions for 528 yards). Scaife doesn’t present a match up problem for the Steeler defense like he has with other opponents.

It will be up to the WR’s (as stated in KEY #1) to step up and make plays. The Steelers will more than likely work their normal pressure and hope that the Titan O-Line gets crossed up at times (probably not).

That said, KEY #3 will be the ability to force the passing game to the outlets and swarm tackle on Scaife or Johnson. The speed on the Steeler defense just doesn’t allow for a lot of extra yards after the catch (ranked 5^th) and Pittsburgh will work on sure passing downs to keep the routes in front of coverage and then rally to the ball.

Tennessee is only 22^nd in converting 3^rd & medium (4 to 6) situations and RB Chris Johnson is averaging just over 6 yards per catch. The Titans as a team rank at or near average in yards per catch with short routes (left (16^th), middle (19^th), and right (16^th)).

Like Pittsburgh, Tennessee shows very few weaknesses on defense. The Steelers will have their work cut out for themselves and will need to protect Roethlisberger from adding to the Titans’ 38 sacks on the season. Tennessee is not afraid to bring the extra man either and have held opposing QB’s under blitz pressure to a 45.12 rating (2^nd).

KEY #4 will be the ability of the Steeler offensive line to buy their QB time in the pocket. Roethlisberger is not the fleetest of foot already and his lack of mobility could prove to be target practice for the Titans.

DT Albert Haynesworth (injured) has provided the majority of the pressure from inside but I see DE’s David Ball, Jacob Ford and Jevon Kearse as primary factors this week. In their three losses the Steelers surrendered 9, 5 and 2 sacks. Close games against San Diego, Dallas and Baltimore have registered 4, 5 & 3 respectively.

The Steelers continue to struggle early in the series and then come up with a play to convert in 3^rd & long situations. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will bring the heat where Roethlisberger is passing at only a 77.83 rating (24^th) against the blitz.

KEY #5 could very well be the return ability of the Titans’ Chris Carr. Carr is averaging 27.4 per return and will be headed into the teeth of a Pittsburgh cover unit that surrenders just 19.4 per (1^st in the NFL).

[Editor’s note:  Drew Magary a/k/a Big Daddy Drew of Kissing Suzy Kolber and Deadspin has written this guest column because he wants you to purchase multiple copies of his book, Men With Balls:  The Professional Athlete’s Handbook, either as gifts for your friends and coworkers (the terms are mutually exclusive in most cases), or to chuck at those annoying Christmas carolers.  We’d suggest aiming at the older ones due to their diminished reflexes, but recent international events have caused us to reconsider that position.]

My wife asked me to install a new toilet paper roll holder in our bathroom recently.  It’s quite a lovely toilet paper roll holder, as toilet paper roll holders go.  It’s got the nickel plating, the burnishing, and what not.  Now ideally, I wouldn’t have to install this holder until February.  Because my spouse and I have an explicit understanding that this is the time for football.  That means I get to put off all manner of annoying and backbreaking weekend chores:  cleaning gutters, raking leaves, seeing my children, etc.  I quite like the arrangement.But I wasn’t able to use football as an excuse this coming Saturday.  And you want to know why?  Because, apart from the NFL Network’s primetime game that evening (now available on Sky6 Broadcasting in Nova Scotia!), there is NO football that day.  Of any kind.And that makes me angry.  Very angry.  So angry I could take Roger Goodell’s big stupid head and slam it under my car hood until he stops twitching.

This is the third year in a row that the NFL has taken away its slate of Saturday NFL December day games. They never bothered to explain to fans why they took these games away. I don’t even think it occurred to them that someone might notice. Yeah, well I noticed.  I noticed it immediately, with a white hot fury blazing in my eyes.

Let me explain something to you people at the NFL.  It’s December.  Okay?  That means FOOTBALL SEASON ISN’T OVER YET.  From Labor Day until the divisional playoffs, I expect and deserve football on the television during the day on both Saturdays and Sundays every weekend.  No exceptions.  For years, the NFL helped pick up the slack on Saturdays in December for college football, whose teams continue to inexplicably cap every season by taking A F–KING MONTH OFF.

But now, the NFL has decided, without any input from the fans, to abandon that tidy little arrangement.  It’s not the lack of games that annoys me (okay, perhaps a bit).  It’s the fact that the NFL took them away without warning, and never gave a clear rationale for doing so.  People love the NFL.  Why would you go out of your way to provide less of it?  I understand the NFL likes having a showcase game for it dopey little network on Saturday nights.  But day games wouldn’t diminish the appeal of that.  They’d enhance it.

I only get a set amount of football-packed weekends per year.  After that, they’re gone for months.  They’re important to me.  I’m passionate about them.  So to cut out the number of games I can watch over the weekend, at a time of year when the end of the season looms ever closer, when I want to watch as much football as I possibly can (especially if relatives are visiting).  I’m sorry, but that really makes me want to hit someone in the face with a fire log.

Now, perhaps some of you may disagree with me here.  Perhaps you’ll say, “Hey Drew, it’s just a couple day games.  You should keep things in perspective.  Get a life, why don’tcha?”  Well, if you disagree with me, you can kindly go drown in the ocean.  I love football, and refuse to apologize for it.  And I certainly won’t apologize when the NFL decides to take football away from me without telling me.  THIS AGGRESSION WILL NOT STAND, MAN!

Alas, the NFL remains silent on this issue.  Which means I’ll be spending this Saturday putting a g–damn toilet paper roll holder in my bathroom.  I expect more than few holes to be punched in the wall that day.

For yet another time, here’s our list of how we currently see the NFL, top to bottom. 

We post the order, you post the comments. 

1.  Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3). 

2.  Tennessee Titans (12-2).

3.  Carolina Panthers (11-3).

4.  New York Giants (11-3).  

5.  Indianapolis Colts (10-4). 

6A.  New York Jets (9-5).

6B.  Miami Dolphins (9-5). 

6C.  New England Patriots (9-5).

9.  Baltimore Ravens (9-5).

10.  Atlanta Falcons (9-5).

11.  Dallas Cowboys (9-5).

12.  Minnesota Vikings (9-5).

13.  Philadelphia Eagles (8-5-1). 

14.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5).

15.  Chicago Bears (8-6).

16.  Houston Texans (7-7). 

17.  Denver Broncos (8-6).

18.  Washington Redskins (7-7).

19.  New Orleans Saints (7-7).

20.  Arizona Cardinals (8-6). 

21.  San Francisco 49ers (5-9).

22.  San Diego Chargers (6-8).

23.  Buffalo Bills (6-8).

24.  Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9).

25.  Green Bay Packers (5-9). 

26.  Cleveland Browns (4-10).

27.  Oakland Raiders (3-11).

28.  Seattle Seahawks (3-11).

29.  Calgary Stampeders (13-5).

30.  Cincinnati Bengals (2-11-1).

31.  Florida Gators (12-1). 

32.  St. Louis Rams (2-12).

33.  Kansas City Chiefs  (2-12).

34.  Oklahoma Sooners (12-1).

35.  Texas Longhorns (11-1). 

36.  Detroit Lions (0-14).

For our Wednesday column at SportingNews.com, we look at the curious case of a head coach who is yet to be on the hot seat, but arguably should be.

Sean Payton of the Saints has followed an appearance in the NFC title game with two seasons of unfulfilled expectations.

To make matters worth, he sent a package of picks (which could upgrade to a first-rounder) to the Gianta for tight end Jeremy Shockey.

The case against Payton is made right here.

[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at the recent instant classic between the Steelers and the Ravens.] 

The picture in the AFC North was clarified in a matter of a little less than three minutes at M&T Bank Stadium, and the overall look of the AFC tightened a bit with Tennessee’s inability to convert drives into TD’s vs. FG’s at Reliant. Now, the Pittsburgh Steelers carry a huge wave of momentum going into the final two weeks of the regular season with their come from behind victory over the Baltimore Ravens.

This one turned out to be just about everything advertised as two of the best defenses in professional football bottled up opportunistic offenses all afternoon. It looked as if the outcome would be ultimately decided on the toes of each team’s placekicker until Ben Roethlisberger found Santonio Holmes on a somewhat controversial TD late in the game. Wow!

The pressure of the Steelers’ 3-4 front has made life miserable for opposing QB’s much of the season and Baltimore’s rookie Joe Flacco had surrendered 7 of his 10 picks in losing efforts. Coupled with the turnovers had come a great majority of his sack total and KEY #1 was to be”managing the pressure from Pittsburgh’s defense.

No one had effectively stopped the new Steel Curtain and heavy emphasis would have to be placed on OLB’s James Harrison & Lamar Woodley. I don’t feel the Ravens were able to handle it.

Flacco was sacked twice and hurried an additional four times. He threw two picks on the day and finished with a 22.2 rating.

It was the timing of the miscues that hurt most. In the 1^st quarter Flacco & the Ravens squandered starting field position at the Pittsburgh 46 with a 2^nd down interception. In the 2^nd quarter with 3^rd & four from the Pittsburgh 10, Woodley hurried Flacco into an incompletion and the Ravens kicked a FG.

In the 3^rd quarter with solid field position from his own 46, Flacco was sacked for a loss of 11 and the drive ended before it started with a punt. With another 3^rd & 4 from the Pittsburgh 10, Flacco was hurried by Lawrence Timmons and threw an incompletion. That drive ended with a FG as well. Finally in the 4^th quarter with 3^rd & 8 from the Pittsburgh 27 Timmons sacked Flacco for -7 and the Ravens were forced to punt. The Steelers converted the ensuing drive into the game winning TD.

The Ravens secondary had been blanketing opponents all season long. Baltimore led the NFL in opposition passer rating, was 2^nd in net yards allowed through the air and 1^st in passing defense on 1^st down. With the Steelers rushing attack struggling to play a big part in their overall game plan, I felt the Ravens would have to shutdown WR’s Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes & Nate Washington (KEY #2).

The trio had played a significant role in Game 1 and if the Ravens could control Roethlisberger and his receivers they might ultimately slow down the Steelers offense. Though the points didn’t come, the Steelers were able to create some opportunities through their passing attack. Ward finished with 8 receptions for 107 yards, Washington with 5 for 76 and Holmes 3 for 21 (none bigger than the last 4 yarder for a score).

A 21 yard completion to Ward in the 2^nd quarter added to a 14 play, 68 yard drive that netted a 31 yard FG. Another 30 yard big play strike to Ward in the 4^th quarter help set up a 30 yard Jeff Reed strike. Then Roethlisberger would spread around completions of 13, 13, 16, 24 & 10 yards to set up the Holmes’ 4 yard TD with 50 seconds to play.

Pittsburgh has found ways over the ’08 season to get their receivers involved and to create the “big plays” when they needed them the most. But you had to put some faith in the defense (specifically the secondary) of Baltimore and with the emphasis on KEY #2, I felt that the Steelers might turn to TE Heath Miller as KEY #3.

Miller has the size and ability to create some mismatches & has been a favorite target of Roethlisberger’s in the red zone. His production in Game 1 was held to a minimum and I felt that the Steelers might utilize him a bit more out of necessity.

Miller would finish with 3 catches for 26 yards, a long of 17. He was targeted another two times. His overall production didn’t warrant accomplishment of KEY #3, but his 17 yard reception did set up 1^st & 10 from the Baltimore 16 that was later converted into a FG.

The Ravens had protected the young Flacco for most of the season off a solid ground game (especially on 1^st down). Baltimore turned to the run almost 67% of the time to start a series and I didn’t see them turning from this tactic against a tuff Pittsburgh defense (KEY #4).

Baltimore had established itself as one of the top teams in the League on 3^rd & short and the Steelers were 2^nd in preventing such conversions. The Ravens stayed true to form with 16 rushes for 65 yards on first down, a nice average of 4.06 per carry. But only seven rushes went for 4 or more yards & Baltimore found itself in ten 3^rd & long situations, converting only three.

The Ravens did dent the Steelers D for 112 yards on 31 carries, with FB Le’Ron McClain (not McGahee) finishing with the most damage (87 yards on 23 totes).

A tight game might come down to a last second FG and certainly it was a game of kicks up to the very end. But I felt KEY #5 might come down to both teams’ punters. The Ravens’ Sam Koch and the Steelers’ Mitch Berger had pinned opponents 43 times combined.

Any long field flip might provide just the opportunity to set up that last second try. Koch won this battle with 4 punts inside the 20. His last would pin the Steelers at their own 8 yard line with 3:36 left to play, Baltimore ahead 9-6.

But the Raven defense that had stifled and stuffed the opposition all season broke for really the first time. The Steelers took Koch’s punt placement and went 92 yards on 12 plays (7 first downs) to score the only TD of the game and secure the AFC North.

[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted  Sundquist looks at the Week Fifteen clash between Tampa and Atlanta.]

The NFC South has been one of the surprise divisions in the NFL for most of ’08, and I have been very impressed with the job that the Carolina Panthers have done in clawing their way to the top. So much so that I’ve frequently expressed an “unofficial” vote for G.M. Marty Hurney as the NFL’s Executive of the Year.

But there’s another NFC South club whose G.M. deserves as much credit in their surprising ascension toward playoff contention. Atlanta’s Thomas Dimitroff has quickly helped change a climate of turmoil & confusion into one of youthful confidence & success. The Falcons would face division rival Tampa Bay for a chance to continue their improbable run at the playoffs.

Atlanta was flying high on the play of their young rookie QB Matt Ryan and the legs of free-agent acquisition Michael Turner. Ryan and Turner brought balance to an offense that had already scored 323 points (9^th in the NFL). Tampa Bay had turned once again to veteran Jeff Garcia to create the “big plays” through the air and a balanced attack behind the running of Warrick Dunn & Cadillac Williams.

Ryan had been schooled somewhat in their first game by Monte Kiffin’s defense, and his production was the lowest on the season. The Bucs sacked Atlanta’s QB 4 times and picked him twice, so KEY #1 was Ryan’s response to a second chance.

In the first meeting his mistakes had led to 10 points for the Bucs off turnovers. DE’s Gaines Adams and Kevin Carter would be the primary sources of pressure, and how Atlanta’s offensive line was able to handle this talented duo would be paramount.

The numbers weren’t pretty for Ryan; one sack, two interceptions, two hurries and a 57.5 rating. One of the turnovers led to a Tampa Bay score. Carter recorded a pressure, but the Tampa DE’s were held off the Falcons’ QB.

Ryan finished 15 of 23 for 206 yards. More importantly he was able to lead the offense to 6 of 14 third down conversions and limit any major miscue damage.

The Buccaneer offense had done a solid job all season in holding onto the football and controlling the clock. They were able to penetrate the red zone on numerous occasions but were coming up short in their efficiency to score (30^th in the NFL). Atlanta would need to improve upon their defense’s ability to stop the score from inside the 20 (KEY #2). Heavy emphasis would be on bracketing Tampa’s TE’s of Alex Smith, Jerramy Stevens and John Gilmore.

This trio had 6 TD’s and might have taken advantage of Garcia’s ability to scramble and find the open receiver. But Garcia sat with a calf injury. Enter backup Brian Griese, and the game plan appeared to transform a bit.

Tampa pierced the Atlanta red zone just twice, resulting in 10 points, and the Atlanta defense only let the Bucs to their own 35 one other time (missed FG).

If Garcia had played on a “bum leg,” I felt that KEY #3 would have to be the establishment of a solid ground game against the Falcons. Atlanta was giving up almost 122 yards rushing per contest and was really struggling to shut down the run on first. With the production of Dunn and Williams, the Bucs could keep the ball out of the hands of Ryan & Turner via ball control.

Griese changed all that and the offense went to a passing attack on first down. Twelve carries resulted in just 32 yards on 1^st down, while Griese threw for 13 of 18, 202 yards (74 yards of which sat up scores).

With Ryan throwing at 101.0 rating of passes of 21+ “air yards” and generating 37 “big plays” of 20+ yards via the pass, KEY #4 for Tampa Bay would be shutting down the long ball to WR’s Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. The talented duo was averaging over 15 yards per catch and had combined for 9 scores.

With heavy defensive concentration on controlling the running game, there might be some opportunities to hit the “big play” down field. Ryan was able to do just that. A 30 yard first quarter strike to White helped set up a TD & another 23 yard throw to Jenkins added to the first scoring drive (26 yard Elam FG). Ryan also hit Jenkins on a 26 yard pass in the 2^nd quarter, later threw downfield 33 yards to the Tampa 1 yard line for an interception (Aqib Talib), and then hit TE Jason Rader for 26 yards (but he fumbled on the Tampa 1 yard line & it was recovered by the Bucs).

The Falcons weren’t afraid to go at the Bucs secondary via the deep ball and the Bucs came away with their own mixed results in defending it.

The final key lay literally at the feet of the two placekickers; Jason Elam and Matt Bryant.

Elam had missed just once from beyond 40 yards and that was from 50+. Bryant had struggled all season going 4 of 9 from beyond 40+. In a close game the extended accuracy of both kickers could very well decide the outcome (KEY #5).

Ultimately the cool poise of Elam would win in overtime, a 34 yarder to seal the deal. But Bryant had his own opportunity. With just 3:43 remaining the Bucs drove 9 plays to the Atlanta 35. Bryant attempted a 53 yard FG and was wide left.

Tampa Bay got one more opportunity off a blocked punt to set up the tie and eventually did (38 yarder). But the long distance miss by Bryant just three minutes earlier might have given the Bucs the points they needed in regulation to close out the game.

As a special Holiday goodwill gesture for our friends in Philly, we’ve dusted off the Live Blog thing for Monday night’s must-win game against the Browns.

We’ll be firing up the engine at 8:15 p.m. EST or so, in order to have plenty of time to get the cord on the lawnmower properly pulled before Senator Hank Williams, Jr., Bitch makes his appearance.

Enjoy.

UPDATE:  At about 9:30 p.m. EST, I lost my Internet connection and I can’t get the CoverItLive program to re-initialize.  I’ll keep trying.

Here it is.  We’ve teased it like 16 times.

The SportingNews.com Ten-Pack for Week Fifteen.

Exhibit A:  More analysis of the game-changing call from the Steelers-Ravens game.

Go there for the first take; stay for the other nine.

[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist takes a look at the Week Fifteen battle between the Bucs and the Falcons.] 

The consolation prize in the NFC South could very well be determined this weekend as surprising Atlanta takes on the wounded Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina took sole possession of first place with a thorough 38-23 win over Tamps in Week 14. Now the Bucs must regroup against a Falcon squad still in the hunt for a wild-card berth and one of the remarkable turnaround stories in quite some time. Atlanta fell early in their “growth process” to Tampa Bay with a Week 2 defeat (24-9). This is a different team now and one looking to bounce back from their own disappointing loss to New Orleans last week.

The resurgence of the Falcon franchise can be directly traced to the play of their young rookie QB Matt Ryan. Ryan has made new head coach Mike Smith and new G.M. Thomas Demitroff look like geniuses. His poised play and production has been more of a seasoned vet than a first season rook. Ryan’s 92.0 passer rating is 5^th in the NFL, and Atlanta is netting 220 pass yards per game.

The Falcons offense has elevated to #5 on the arm of Ryan and on the “wheels” of RB Michael Turner. These two additions have brought a spark to the Atlanta offense and a resulting 323 total points (tied for 9^th).

Though at times turbulent, the Bucs have their own stability at quarterback with veteran Jeff Garcia (calf; questionable). Garcia has turned the “big play” via the air enough times to generate his own 223 net yards passing each week. The Bucs are highly efficient throwing the ball on first down (58.5% of 4+ yards) and keep opponents guessing with a nice mix of run/pass to start a series. Garcia leads what could be described as a steady & efficient group on offense. They’re ranked 12^th overall and are generally ranked in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories.

Ryan’s low outing on the year was against the Bucs in Game 1 with only 129 net passing yards. Tampa Bay sacked the rookie 4 times (also season high) and he threw 2 picks (7 total for the season). Certainly defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin’s pressure got to the young QB and KEY #1 will be his response the second go-round.

Ryan will have to avoid the costly mistakes and miscues that led to 10 points off turnovers. DE’s Gaines Adams (2 sacks in Game 1) and Kevin Carter will bring the heat on OT’s Todd Weiner and Tyson Clabo.

My instincts lean towards the Buc rush tandem with their strength and explosion off the edge. If Atlanta can’t handle the pressure off the perimeter they might have to hold the RB in support and Jerious Norwood has been Ryan’s primary outlet most of the season.

If Atlanta’s defense is to bend it mustn’t break. The Bucs have done a good job at creating and sustaining drives over the long haul and rank third in time of possession. But where they tend to bog down is in the red zone and scoring efficiency sits 30^th at 36.0. In their four losses they’ve converted 4 of 12 trips inside the 20.

KEY #2 for the Falcons will be to improve on their own ability to prevent TD’s in the red zone. To do this they’ll have to lock down on TE’s Alex Smith, Jerramy Stevens and John Gilmore. The trio has 6 TD’s on the season and take advantage of the movement of Garcia inside their opponents’ 20 (though the calf may hamper his ability to do so).

Tampa Bay looks to run on first down a significant majority of the time, then works off play action to the open receiver. Atlanta’s LB’s will be tested at the break point of the route (with separation) in these short field scenarios.

If Garcia is hobbled and forced to stay in the pocket, look for KEY #3 being the ability of firmly establishing the run against a Falcon defense that has struggled to slow down opponents on the ground for much of the season. Atlanta gives up almost 122 yards per game, but more significant is the amount of yardage surrendered on 1^st downs. The Falcons rank 27^th in rushing defense on 1^st down (4.80 yds per play). Overall they are 31^st in the percentage of rushes by opponents that go for 4+ yards.

The Bucs can be patient and will bleed the clock to keep Ryan and his receivers off the field. RB’s Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams will want to crank it up a notch from last week’s performance (albeit against a tough Panther front seven). The Bucs rushed for 164 yards in Game 1, but that was on the legs of the injured Ernest Graham. Look for Tampa Bay to head left behind their big OG Arron Sears (average over 5 yards per carry).

Atlanta’s QB Matt Ryan is throwing at an astounding 101.0 rating on passes of 21+ “air yards” and the Falcons have generated 37 pass plays of 20+ yards. The “big play” via the pass is a huge weapon in the arsenal of the Atlanta attack.

KEY #4 for the Bucs is shutting down the long ball to receivers Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. Both are averaging over 15 yards per catch and have combined for 9 scores. White has a long reception of 70 yards, Jenkins one for 62 (both went for scores). The Bucs have yielded only 29 passes of 20+ (5^th in the League), but have only held the opposition to an 87.5 rating with throws over 21+ (25^th). White and Jenkins have quietly become an explosive big play tandem in the NFC and DC’s Phillip Buchanon and Ronde Barber will need to count on safeties Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips for help over the top. With a heavy dose of Turner in the run game, Jackson & Phillips have to be wary of play action and the temptation to over support.

KEY #5 will be the long range accuracy of the veteran Jason Elam vs. Matt Bryant. Elam has missed only once beyond 40 yards (1 of 2 from 50+), while Bryant is 4 of 9 from beyond the 40. With as much as is riding on this game for both teams, look for close play and the accuracy from long distance to potentially create the winning margin. KEY #5 ½ is the explosive return ability of RB Clifton Smith for Tampa Bay. Smith averages 29 yards per kickoff return and has a 97 yard TD. Atlanta’s coverage units rank 12^th with 22.5 yards per return allowed.

[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at Sunday’s game between the Steelers and the Ravens.] 

Week 15 brings to the AFC North what Week 14 brought to the NFC South with Tampa Bay vs. Carolina — the game of the year in the division. Pittsburgh travels to Baltimore in a divisional showdown that could very well knot up the top or put some distance between the current standing. The Steelers and the Ravens have arguably two of the best defenses in professional football and this has the makings of a battle royale.

The first meeting wasn’t decided through 60 minutes of play and took an additional 6 minutes to decide on a Jeff Reed 46 yard field goal. It was a “throwback” night in Pittsburgh and there was plenty of old time hitting to be had as both teams lost a running back, the Steelers for the season in rookie Rashard Mendenhall.

Now the only thing that separates the two is this single game and the Ravens have an excellent opportunity to make up the distance.

A week ago we discussed the makeup of the Steeler offense and where they ranked in numerous statistical categories (mostly towards the bottom). Their defense has been outstanding and they just find a way to make plays when they have to, but many of the pillars of a successful offense have been lagging or somewhat average in ’08. Baltimore has been in a much similar situation breaking in a rookie QB. Their defense has suffocated opponents and created opportunities for the offense. The difference now is that Joe Flacco has an additional nine games in his resume and will be in front of the hometown faithful.

Pittsburgh’s 3-4 defense brings the pressure like none other in the League, tied for first with 45 sacks. Regardless of the updated play time of the rookie Raven QB, the Steelers will be focused on constant pressure to disrupt the rhythm of the Baltimore offense and force the errant throw.

Seven of Flacco’s ten interceptions on the season have come in losing efforts (one returned for a score). Ten of his twenty-three sacks were in 3 of 4 losses and in Game 1 vs. the Steelers he was sacked, fumbled and the return went for a score.

KEY #1 must be to manage the pressure from Pittsburgh. It’s next to impossible to shut it down, but the Ravens must find a way not to knuckle under to the rush and create the big play turnover. To do that they’ll have to handle OLB’s James Harrison (knee) & Lamar Woodley. Harrison had a field day in Game 1 and has 15.0 sacks for the season (3^rd). Baltimore will look to leave extra protection in the backfield in support of Flacco who relies on the RB’s as his outlet. Veteran OT Willie Anderson and the young Jared Gaither (shoulder) will have their work cut out for themselves.

The secondary of the Ravens couldn’t get much better than how they’ve played in ’08. Baltimore leads the League in overall opponent passer rating at 58.6, rank 2^nd in net passing yards allowed and they’re 1^st in passing defense on 1^st down (53.5 rating). Ed Reed (thigh), Jim Leonard (illness), Samari Rolle and Fabian Washington have 10 interceptions and 3 scores combined (5 & 3 from Reed alone).

KEY #2 will be blanketing the trio of Hynes Ward, Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington. In Game 1 the Steeler wideouts contributed seven receptions for 141 yards and a score. Pittsburgh’s rushing attack hasn’t produced as in the past with the number of injuries that the RB’s have faced this season and QB Ben Roethlisberger will have to go to the air with some consistency to have any chance against this defense. If the Ravens can control the Steeler passing attack, even forcing a turnover or two, it could very well cripple the Pittsburgh game plan, since Baltimore yields an average of 77 yards per game on the ground.

The Steelers managed only 69 yards rushing and a 2.5 yard avg per carry in Game 1. I don’t see that trend changing much against Baltimore in Game 2. With emphasis on KEY #2 for the Ravens, look for TE Heath Miller to play a significant role in the passing game and become a frequent target on the night (KEY #3).

Miller presents a mismatch of sorts against the Ravens’ OLB’s in coverage. Miller averages 11.4 yards per catch and is equally adept at stretching the seam (from time to time) as he is separating to the flats. He’s also a favorite of Roethlisberger’s in the red zone and Pittsburgh is tied for 6^th in successful plays at 50.0%, with a scoring efficiency of 58.5% (9^th). The Ravens shut down Miller in Game 1 to season lows of 2 catches for 8 yards. Pittsburgh will need to utilize their TE much better in Game 2.

Baltimore has turned to their running game rather effectively in winning 7 of their last 8 games. The Ravens rank 5^th in the League at 144 yards per game and go to the ground some 67% of the time on first downs. Despite their propensity of preference to run they’re not one of the top teams in efficiency doing so (18^th with rushes of 4+, 23^rd with rushes 4+ on 1^st).

KEY #4 for the Steelers will be to maintain their own dominance in stopping the run on first. I don’t look for Baltimore’s game plan to suddenly thrust Flacco into downfield throws to start the series. The Ravens have done a nice job in managing down/distance for the rookie QB, and that has started with a steady diet of run, turning to the pass on 2^nd only if forced to (usually with 7 to 9 yards to go).

Baltimore is one of the top teams in the NFL at converting on 3^rd and short situations and they will want to stay on schedule. Pittsburgh’s defense is ranked 2^nd in preventing such (48.9%). The Steelers have struggled somewhat, defending to the left perimeter and Baltimore likes to get to the outside on runs (top 10 avg) with Willis McGahee. He’s a load in the open field with the foot quickness to force the miss.

Field goals will more than likely once again decide this matchup as both defenses are just way too stingy. But don’t look for the PK’s to be the primary key, rather look to both punters in creating the long field. With these two defenses any pin inside the 20 could immediately flip the field in advantage of the punting team. That’s why Baltimore’s Sam Koch (27 pins) & Pittsburgh’s Mitch Berger (16 pins) are KEY #5.

[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at the Monday night game between the Bucs and Panthers.] 

Two of the best teams the NFC South has to offer tangled in a Monday Night matchup that pitted Carolina vs. T